Variance in Poker — How to Tell If You're Losing from Skill or Luck

Poker Is Unfair in the Short Term

If you've played poker long enough, you've had this thought: "I played that hand correctly — why do I keep losing?"

The answer lies in variance. Poker is a game where even perfect play can result in significant losses over short periods. That's not a bug — it's the fundamental nature of the game.

What Variance Is

Variance measures how spread out results are around the expected value. Flip a coin 100 times and you'll get roughly 50 heads, but flip it 10 times and you might get 3 or 8. Poker works the same way.

When you get your money in 80% ahead and lose, that's not bad play — it's the 20% happening. It can happen 10 times in a row. Mathematically uncommon, but not impossible.

How to Interpret a Downswing

When you hit a downswing, there are two possibilities:

1. Pure variance — You're playing correctly, results are just bad
2. Skill issue — There's actually a problem with your play

Distinguishing between them requires a sufficient sample. 100 hands isn't enough. You need thousands of hands before metrics like BB/100 become statistically reliable.

Checking Variance in My Bankroll

My Bankroll's statistics screen shows your variance figure directly. When variance is high, the data reminds you not to react to short-term results — and to judge your play over a longer timeframe.

With consistent session logging, you can answer "am I in a downswing, or has my play gotten worse?" with data instead of a gut feeling.